Nobody knows the importance of planning when developing a long term project like Houston. For those unaware, H-Town was the main headquarters for NASA during the space race of the 1960s, and the funds/jobs that poured into the area because of this actually built the city of Houston as we know it today. Why do I bring this up? Well, there’s a new fleet of Rockets being assembled in South Texas, and the production of these has been tumultuous at best.
When you’re building anything, rockets, cities, basketball teams, common principles apply. You need a solid base of materials as well as competent leaders and workers to actually do the work and see it through. Most important of all, however, is a clear plan. An identity of what they want to be. Everything else is moot if you get to the construction site and go, “yea, let’s just wing it”. You ever tried making cookies for the first time then forget the vinegar and your chocolate chip cookies are flat as pancakes? That’s why you follow the plan.
Let’s (finally) turn this metaphor to basketball. Tanking, whether you like it or not, is a proven strategy for small market teams to reliably attain talent. Simply put, “Tanking is the art of creating a purposefully bad team with the intention of losing games to gain high draft picks” (Gerrard, 2019). The first team credited with tanking is actually not the Sam Presti “Trust the Process” Sixers, but the 1983-84 Houston Rockets. The story goes that after a disappointing 20-26 start, Houston brass got together and agreed that the season was a lost cause. So instead of continuing to fight for mediocrity, they played their young guys and their bench more minutes, and only won 9 more times to finish the year 29-53, last in the Western Conference. Then with a little bit of luck with the coin flip between the two worst teams in the two conferences (as was the rule before the draft lottery as we know it was put in place the season after) the Rockets got the first overall pick of the 1984 NBA Draft. With this pick, they drafted Hakeem Olajuwon, who only turned out to be one of the greatest players of all time; eventually leading the Rockets to back-to-back Finals wins (the only championships in team history).
While Houston had no idea the 84′ draft class would go down as probably the greatest draft class of all time (outside of maybe the 2003 class), they used sound decision making to give themselves their best chance to find a franchise changing talent. Everybody’s not going to get Hakeem, but it’s been proven time and time again that this strategy works.
Despite this, tanking was still uncommon. A few other teams employed it for seasons, but you didn’t see the full scale roster tear downs that are commonplace in a post-Process NBA. After it was clear Sam Presti hit a goldmine, other middle of the pack teams scrambled to replicate what he’d done. What so many of these General Managers miss, however, is that losing games and getting high draft picks is only half the battle. See, it’s easy to lose the wrong way, but losing the right way is how you build a real franchise. And as of right now, Houston is losing the wrong way.
On paper, having the worst record in the league for back to back seasons along with a 1-6 record as I write this is great for a tanking team. The Rockets are a lock to have yet another top 5 pick after having the #2 and #3 respectively. The issue isn’t the losses, but HOW they’re losing. Look at the other tanking teams: Oklahoma City, Detroit, Orlando, San Antonio, Indiana, and Utah. These front offices are trying to lose, yes, but in the losses, you can see a clear identity forming for each team. The Thunder and Magic are trying to assemble as many skilled big men as possible to hit a type of basketball singularity. Detroit and Indiana have stud young backcourts, explosive rookies paired with blossoming young point guards to build around. San Antonio and Utah are well oiled machines of unselfish role players that compete by playing fundamentally sound basketball and outhustling teams despite their lack of on paper talent. These teams aren’t good, yet every loss gives you a glimpse of what the future may hold. When I look at Houston, I have no idea what type of team they want to be, because structurally this team is an absolute mess.
The defense is absolutely awful, which is expected but still concerning. We know Houston wants to win games on offense. At least that’s why they hired Stephen Silas, yet every bucket the offense scores feels way harder than it should be. The offense is supposed to be free flowing, allowing talented scorers (namely Jalen Green, who we’ll get to later) the freedom to play to their strengths. In theory this is the same offense the Warriors have perfected. In practice, it takes years to develop the chemistry and understanding of the game Golden State has. These principles have the tendency to devolve into AAU/pickup basketball levels of offense when run by inexperienced players, and that’s exactly what’s happened. Jeff says it the best:
The fact that Houston is struggling to score with the young players they’ve invested heavily in, and a supposedly offensive minded coach is a major cause for concern. The Rockets are 28th in the league is assists per game, turn the ball over 16 times a game, and have the worst FG% in the league(As of 10/30/22). When you’ve had little to no offensive structure, you begin to form bad habits that will hold you back from winning when you want to. Let’s watch some film.
This is the opening sequence from the Rocket/Suns game last night, and I think it perfectly encapsulates all the problems in Houston.
I like the play Coach Silas draws up here: it’s a simple dribble handoff action involving his best offensive player Jalen Green. Kevin Porter Jr. takes the ball up the court and passes to the curling Green off an Alperen Sengun screen. Green grabs the ball, takes a dribble, and fires to Jae’Sean Tate who cuts toward the elbow. Tate now has the option to hand it off to Green with a full head of steam, or drive middle and collapse the defense, where Sengun screens for Jabari Smith Jr. off ball to create an open look. It should look something like this:
Again, I like the design here from Silas. But let’s see how the Rockets ran it.
Screen from Sengun frees up Green, looks good so far.
Tate has the mismatch on Paul, feels it, and turns the corner
A weak fake handoff allows Paul to anchor down and force Tate up just far enough for his help to rotate over. Bridges is trailing the ball, but he’s a First Team All-Defense guy with a massive wingspan, so Tate’s wise not to look back and make a difficult pass. Biyombo rotates over to help and Sengun is ready to screen Smith Jr’s man. The corner three should be wide open here. Porter Jr makes no effort to even be involved in the play.
Disaster. Smith Jr. doesn’t use the back pick (either a miscommunication or a mental lapse) and spent the entire offensive possession standing completely still. With no kickout option to the left corner and the right corner an extremely difficult pass, Tate forces a bad shot that gets easily rejected. If Tate would’ve jump stopped and gathered off two, at least he would’ve had a chance to make a pass out. He also fades away from the contact, leaving no chance of drawing a foul. Smith Jr. and Porter Jr. don’t even move for the entire play. No one crashes the glass.
No one crashes the glass, but they make up for it by not being in position on the fast break. Again, Smith Jr. either didn’t read the scouting report or forgot that Cam Johnson is shooting 38.5% from 3 this season. He gives a half-hearted closeout, and the shot goes up without a real contest.
Money. Rockets go down 3-0 and it’s been 15 seconds. Miscues, lack of extra efforts, and generally poor fundamentals. Extrapolated over 48 minutes and you have the 2022-23 Houston Rockets. This is why I say the Rockets are losing the wrong way, they’re creating bad habits that hurt development. It’s the little things that are the difference between wins and losses, between title teams and runners up. Houston doesn’t do these things yet, and if they aren’t careful, they never will.
So where does the blame fall? More importantly, how do we fix this? Personally, the biggest issue Houston has is ironically the thing they sought after the most: they’re too young. Every rebuilding team needs a solid foundational guy to ensure the whole operation runs smoothly. A veteran coach to rein the young guys in, a floor general that can be a leader on and off the court, and a versatile defensive veteran that shores up weaknesses the miscues that happens with young teams, a tanking team needs at least 2 of the 3 to create a positive environment for growth. Houston has none of these, their veterans are Eric Gordon, Jae’Sean Tate (solid but not exactly complimentary pieces), and Boban (funny, definitely a good locker room guy, but he’s not going to offer much in terms of aiding development).
Stephan Silas is an inexperienced head coach who’s track record is questionable at best. He has some head scratching lineups and play calls, but it’s hard to know how much is him and how much the front office is asking certain players to get minutes. My biggest issue with Silas is that he’s supposedly an offensive guru but runs a bland, uninspired offense that doesn’t hold bad ball movement accountable. It’s hard to know how much of it is Silas given that he’s never had even a competent winning roster to coach, but Houston has had the worst record in the league two years running, and they look no better this year either. I think Silas got hosed with his first coaching gig, but he’s done himself no favors thanks to his inexperience. I think a Mike Brown career path (thrown into the fire-fired-assistant for championship teams-returns to lead better prepared thanks to his experience) might the best for him, because he’s definitely a smart dude, and well-liked around the league.
So where does Houston go from here? I feel bad for making this whole article seem like doom and gloom, there’s actually a lot of stuff I like from the Rockets. Kevin Porter Jr. has really taken a step forward this season. I said in my PG ranking that KPJ could make me look like an idiot for placing him so low, and I was right. I still have questions as to whether or not he’ll be a true point guard, but his consistency, facilitating, and defense have all looked improved. Jalen Green plays like he has rocket boosters attached to his feet, just an instant kick of energy. He’s the guy Houston is building around, and the lack of structure is really hurting him. His shot making has been straight up bad this season, only managing 36% from the field so far on the year. Part of it is him just missing shots, but when a talent like that is only 20 years old, you have to do everything you can to make life easy for him. The Rockets haven’t done that, but at least they’ve given him a long leash to mess up and plenty of reps to figure it out.
When he can do shit like this, you’ll live with the growing pains
3rd overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. has been underwhelming (especially considering the success of his contemporaries like Keegan Murray, Paolo Banchero, Benedict Mathurin, etc.). Smith has only managed a paltry 32% from the field and 31% from 3 as a stretch 4. Despite being considered the most pro-ready prospect by some, I never really agreed with this consensus. He’s a 19 year old big man that’s always been more physically dominant then his competition making the leap to a league where everybody is just as athletic as him. There were always going to be growing pains. Too many people have jumped ship on Smith Jr. when in actuality his career is just getting started. People expect these rookies to come into the league as All-Stars out the gate, patience is a lost virtue in the NBA. Smith Jr. needs support and stability, just like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
I’m also a huge fan of the Tari Eason. He’s the definition of an energy and hustle, immediately making his team better whenever he checks in. It’s criminal he’s only playing 17 minutes a game, he can be the type of versatile, intangible defender Houston so desperately needs, along with creating the types of easy second chance that great teams take advantage of. Alperen Sengun has shown some impressive skills for a big man. Josh Christopher, Kenyon Martin Jr., Usman Garuba, there are interesting players here, but without the proper support none of these guys will develop into the best versions of themselves, at least not in Houston
I look at the Pistons extending Bojan Bogdanovic as a great example of what a front office should do to help their young players succeed. On paper, why would a team not trying to win sign a 33 year old wing to a multi-year deal? When you watch the games, it’s obvious. Bogdanovic makes life easier for everybody, he can create his shots when the offense isn’t flowing, is a lethal, (and I mean LETHAL) spot up shooter and knows all the little intricacies of the game. He clearly loves his mentor role, and he’s playing some of the best ball of his career. On the other hand, Detroit takes pressure off of their young guys like Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey by giving them a release valve to reward good basketball. Along with Cory Joseph off the bench (the definition of a solid vet floor general) and former Coach of the Year winner Dwane Casey at the helm, the Pistons have surrounded their young core with complimentary veterans to help ease the young guns into the chaos that is NBA basketball. The Rockets opted to just chuck everybody right into the fire and say “uhhh yea you guys can figure it out”.
Houston’s point guards are a reformed shooting guard who’s a massive work in progress, an underwhelming second year guy who spent the majority of last season in the G-League, and TyTy Washington, the 29th overall pick who’s been squeezed out crucial developmental minutes. There’s not a single guy here that’s proven to be an NBA level facilitator. The head coach is inexperienced and unproven. The only players with more than 3 years of experience are Eric Gordon and Boban Marjanovic, both players that don’t help compliment and support young talent. The offense is structureless, poorly run, relying on sheer talent to save bad possession after bad possession. Somehow the defense is even worse. The young Rockets have no identity, no clear plan, and look like the worst team in the league for the third year in a row. Something has to change, and fast, otherwise Houston’s newest launch won’t even make it off the runway.
Ben Talks Ball 
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