Ben Talks Ball

It’s playoff season! 82 games (more for our friends in the Play-In, which no is not the actual playoffs) have come and gone. 16 teams remain, each only 16 wins away from raising the Larry O’Brien trophy. In a season with historical parity, the margins for error are thinner than ever. One player can swing an entire series one way or the other. Every series an unlikely hero steps up and puts his team over the edge. Our goal is to find this hero for each team.

Western Conference:

Denver Nuggets (1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver’s X-Factor: Aaron Gordon

If Aaron Gordon can space the floor while proving his usual devastating cutting, the Nuggets could cruise through this. Rudy Gobert is having a down year, but he’s still a 3 time Defensive Player of the Year you have to respect. Jokic will get his, but Gordon has to be able to play his offensive role to get the pressure off of Jokic. The Wolves are down Jaden McDaniels to a broken hand (Wonder why? He punched a wall), so they’re missing the guy who’s probably the best wing defender in the league. This just makes Gordon’s job that much easier. It’s a pretty simple ask, but the Nuggets need to do the little things right to stave off a feisty Minnesota team

Minnesota’s X-Factor: Rudy Gobert

The Rudy Gobert trade has been many things for the Timberwolves. The highs have been high, the lows have literally started fights and directly caused injury. Now, Rudy has a chance to prove this wasn’t the worst trade in NBA history by pulling off the upset on the Nuggets this series. Last time the two faced off in the playoffs, Jokic dominated Gobert in a stunning 3-1 comeback. Gobert has to be able to handle, or at the very least bother the reigning MVP. This is why the T-Wolves traded for him, to handle to dominate bigs of the Western Conference. If he can’t do the job that Minnesota paid a hefty price for him to do, things will get scary for the T-Wolves fast.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis’ X-Factor: Desmond Bane

This was a hard one to answer. The Grizzlies have such a deep roster, and there’s a lot of guys that can step up for them. Luke Kennard (who led the league in 3pt% this season) will have to hit his shots. Newly minted All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. has to stay out of foul trouble, especially without Steven Adams available. Dillon Brooks will have to shoot above 30% from the field (low bar here, but it’s Dillon Brooks). The point is, with Ja still working his way back into superstar form, it’ll take a team effort to knock off the feisty Lakers. Desmond Bane will have to take the lead. Last season, Bane doubled his points per game from 9 to 18, and this year he jumped again to 21.5. It’s easy to forget but he was getting some serious All-Star buzz before a toe injury forced him to the sideline. Against the Lakers, the Grizz will need dynamic shot making and capable playmaking, both skills he hangs his hat on. With LA certainly keying in on keeping Ja in check, Bane will have to punish them for leaving him in single coverage, and be able to keep the ball moving when the defense focuses on him. If Bane is on, Memphis should be able to get through the Lakers early.

Los Angeles’ X-Factor: Jarred Vanderbilt

Anthony Davis and Lebron James. The Lakers live and die by these two names. Despite a refurbished supporting cast, it still took a superhuman effort from the two to eek past the Timberwolves in overtime. A Timberwolves team that was missing 3 of their 8 best players, no less. If Davis and James are forced to carry this team against a much better Memphis squad, they’ll eventually wear down. The role-players need to step up, and none more than Jarred Vanderbilt. J-Vando is a fantastic defender, that’s no question. Here’s the problem: he’s a complete zero on offense. In the Play-In game, the T-Wolves were able to leave him alone on the perimeter and pack the paint, making life hell for AD and Lebron. Ironically, Memphis exploited this same weakness last season, when Vanderbilt was on the Timberwolves. I shudder to think what will happen to LA if Jaren Jackson Jr. is allowed to roam freely off of him. Vando doesn’t have to set the world on fire, just hit open shots or at least drive on closeouts under control to maintain the offensive advantage. If he can be a competent offensive player, the Lakers have a chance.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento’s X-Factor: Davion Mitchell

Despite the higher seed, the Kings are actually underdogs heading into this one. As pissed off as this makes me, I do understand it. It’s been 17 years since Sac’s been in the dance, and we’re playing the greatest dynasty of the last 10 years. Honestly I still can’t believe we’re here. Obviously, the biggest problem we’ll have to deal with is 30. Steph is a top 10 player of all-time, would probably be All-NBA First Team if not for injuries, and the engine behind everything the Warriors do. Solving the Curry question is hard enough as is, made even harder by the fact that the Kings have a notoriously bad defense (23rd in the league in defensive rating). Mike Brown and his staff will have dig deep schematically to figure out how to slow him down. If you’ve read 7 Seconds or Less, you’ll remember the approach Mike D’Antoni and the Suns took against Kobe and the Lakers; Let him get his, shut off the water from everyone else. Frustrate the hell out of him by taking his help away. Steph’s incredible, but even if he has 40, the Warriors will probably have to get at least 70 more points from elsewhere (thanks to the Kings’ historically great offense). I think this would be our best approach, but it’s not possible without a phenomenal 1 on 1 defender to annoy the hell out of Curry. Enter Davion Mitchell.

Off-Night is a bull dog defender, excellent at screen navigation (which is great since the Warriors absolutely LOVE to run Steph through a million off ball picks), and has both the quickness and strength to make Steph work for everything. However, if Davion can show up on offense, the series could be blown wide open. His jumper will be the biggest swing. If he’s hitting shots and forcing defenses to respect him on offense, it not only opens things up for everyone else, but allows Coach Brown to play him more. More minutes = more time with our best on-ball defender guarding Steph = good things. We know the defense will be there. But if the shot starts falling, look out.

(Little tangent here. Harrison Barnes is arguably even more important for the Kings in this series. HB can’t disappear, he has to be able to hit his shots and not be a traffic cone on defense. Don’t let the playoff demons of 2016 come back to haunt you Harrison. I believe.)

Golden State’s X-Factor: Andrew Wiggins

The second best player on the Warriors title run from last year (yea I said it) will be vital for Golden State. De’Aaron Fox is averaging 25 points with 8 assists on over 50% from the field against the Warriors on the season. If they don’t slow Foxy down, they’ll be blown away. Last season, Wiggins was their answer for the opponent’s stars, and this year we can expect the same. Also, he has an underrated offensive bag and hit a number of clutch buckets last playoff run. However, Wiggins hasn’t played since December 3rd. It’s fair to expect there be a little bit of rust when he returns to the court. The sooner he returns to the All-Star level of play he had last season, the better chance the Warriors will have at stopping the best offense in the league.

(I wrote way more about the Kings because they’re my team so I’ll throw the Warriors a bone here. Kevon Looney is going to play a huge role in Golden State’s success. If he and Draymond get Sabonis in foul trouble shit gets dicey for us real fast. I’m definitely expecting to scream at the referees.)

Phoenix Suns (4) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix’s X-Factor: Josh Okogie

The Suns’ starting lineup is crazy. You’ve got 2 of the greatest players of All-Time, a top 15 player in the league, and a very good (and underrated!) center. There’s one name that stands out; Josh Okogie. He may not have the star power of KD, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton, but Okogie has sneakily become a very solid starter in the valley. Coming off a strong showing on Mike Brown’s Nigerian national team, Okogie used his exemplary defense to earn a roster spot, then used his improved offensive feel and shooting to become the deserving 5th starter on a team with championship aspirations. Okogie will now have the least enviable task imaginable: trying to stop Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs. If Okogie can effectively stay out of foul trouble and give Kawhi a hard time, Phoenix can annihilate a Paul George-less Clippers without breaking a sweat.

Los Angeles’ X-Factor: Tyronn Lue

Ok, I know I said this was about players, but hear me out. The Clippers are an extremely deep team, and knowing what lineups to trust and which matchups to exploit will keep LA in the series until Paul George returns. Depth is a gift in the regular season, but it can become a curse come playoff time. When rotations tend to shrink from 10 players to 6-8, you’d rather have stars you can give big minutes to. Outside of Kawhi Leonard and maybe Russell Westbrook, I don’t know who on this Clippers team is going to get playoff minutes. The good news is, having more tools on hand gives Lue the opportunity to (hypothetically) adapt to whatever the Suns throw at him. At the 5, he can go with the bruising shot blocker Ivica Zubac, a defensively lacking offensive hub in Mason Plumlee, or go small ball with Nic Batum or another wing at center to try and out run Phoenix. While Lue has one of the few players in the world that can match Kevin Durant, how he moves the pieces around Kawhi will determine whether or not the Clippers can pull off the upset.

Eastern Conference:

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Miami Heat (8)

Milwaukee’s X-Factor: Grayson Allen

The starting 4 for the Bucks will be the most dominant and complimentary foursome in the league: Jrue Holiday-Khris Middleton-Giannis Antetokounmpo-Brook Lopez. This is a proven, championship winning core. That championship run saw PJ Tucker emerge as 5th starter, fulfilling the perfect 3 and D role with all the grit and shotmaking Milwaukee needed. Now instead of Tucker, the Bucks have Grayson Allen filling the role. Yikes. Grayson’s done a decent job holding it down in the regular season, but this is the playoffs. He’ll have to step up, or else he’ll get benched and the Bucks will struggle more than they should.

Miami’s X-Factor: The Culture

Yea, maybe Miami has the 27th ranked offense in the league. Maybe the Bucks have the best defense in the league and the Heat have literally no way to feasibly score unless Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro go nuclear (or Max Strus, apparently). None of that matters. The Heat have CULTURE. They have Udonis Haslem on the bench giving sage advice in his farewell tour. They have 4 am workouts. They have GRIT. They have… zero chance if we’re being honest, but shit man who knows. If anybody’s got a shot to take down a 1 seed in their first round matchup, might as well be the most experienced and proven playoff team. Culture is EVERYTHING.

Boston Celtics (2) vs Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston’s X-Factor: Marcus Smart

Trae Young seems to finally be getting his groove back. So it’s really nice Boston has last year’s Defensive Player of the Year to throw on him. It’s like what I wrote above for Steph and Davion, except Smart’s twice as good as Davion and Trae Young is kinda just a cheap Curry impressionist (pretty great dude to do an impression of though, even if he lacks the off ball movement that makes Steph so great). On the other end, Smart has to remain under control and keep the ball moving. The Celtics are too good of a team to let themselves stagnate into iso ball and dumb turnovers, and they usually only end up doing this when Smart starts playing like a jackass. Reign it in, annoy Trae, beat the Hawks in 4 and start planning for the Sixers.

Atlanta’s X-Factor: De’Andre Hunter

Let’s call a spade a spade: Atlanta is completely overmatched here. The Celtics were a regular season buzzsaw while the Hawks were historically, almost impressively mediocre. If there’s any chance they pull off the upset, De’Andre Hunter will be a major reason why. The 3 and D wing is Atlanta’s best answer to Jayson Tatum. If he has success against the MVP candidate and manages to hit his shots on offense (two VERY big asks, but he’s flashed the ability to two both), the Hawks will have just enough wiggle room to maybe make something happen. Even if Hunter puts together a rare consistent series, so much has to go right for the Hawks to beat the well oiled machine that is Boston. However, it’d be a pretty damn good start.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs Brooklyn Nets (6)

Philadelphia’s X-Factor: James Harden

It’s a little weird to call a perennial All-Star and future Hall of Famer an “under the radar X-Factor guy”, yet that’s just where we’re at with Harden today. The question isn’t even one of his ability, he’s still great (albeit in a different way), it’s one of health. In the final 20 or so games of the season, Harden struggled through an Achilles injury. He missed 8 of the final 22 since March, and is barely shooting over 40% from the field. Achilles injuries are brutal. Defensively, I shouldn’t have to explain why this is a death blow to an already mediocre at best defender. With this injury nagging, Harden has zero burst, backbreaking on both sides of the ball. He’s still got an extraordinary amount of moves in his bag and lead the league in assists during the regular season, but if he can’t move his effectiveness has it’s limits. Brooklyn has a million lengthy wings that can disrupt passing lanes and swallow up weak drive attempts. If Harden struggles to get them off him, the Sixers offense as whole risks stagnating into Joel Embiid iso ball all series long. Hopefully taking the last two games of the regular season off gives Harden the rest he needs to be at full strength. If he’s limited, the road through the playoffs gets even more challenging than it already is.

Brooklyn’s X-Factor: Nic Claxton

Some of these choices were really difficult and required some period of consideration. This was not one of them. Joel Embiid is going to be the MVP. He’s arguably the most dominating presence in the league; a 7 footer who led the league in points per game (33.1) and protects the paint with a grudge. Congrats Nic! That’s who you got. If Claxton can stay out of foul trouble or even get Embiid rung up with a few, the game changes. The foul battle will be a key stat to watch all series, Embiid LOVES to get to the line and he’s quite good at it. No one takes more foul shots than Joel (about 12 a game). Claxton is a great defensive player, likely an All-Defensive team guy. He’s gonna need to take it to another level to hang with the MVP.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs New York Knicks (5)

Cleveland’s X-Factor: Literally All of Their Wings

Again, cheating. But this is legit the only hole in the Cavs’ rotation. Remember the Suns? Remember how Josh Okogie stepped into an insanely talented starting 5 and gave them the 3 and D presence they needed? Well, Cleveland’s been looking for their Okogie all year. They haven’t found him. Every option has something they’re great at and each has a fatal flaw. It’s like a damn Greek tragedy or something. Caris Levert: He’s gonna get his shots. Whether he’s 12-15 or 0-20, you better be damn sure he’s getting his shots. Cedi Osman, jack of all trades, master of none. A great bench piece, but unless he’s on you don’t want him closing. Lamar Stevens hustles and has great length, but is a Jarred Vanderbilt-esq negative on offense. Dean Wade may sound similar to Dwayne Wade, but I promise you they could not be more different. Issac Okoro has been the Cavs best option at this spot, finally hitting enough of his 3s to match his impressive defense. Thing is, Okoro is day-to-day with a knee injury. Even when Okoro gets healthy, at least 1 or 2 of these guys will have to step up and do just enough to give the Cavaliers separation against a very good Knicks team.

New York’s X-Factor: RJ Barrett

With Julius Randle’s health up in the air, Cleveland will be able to focus their entire defensive game plan on stopping Jalen Brunson. RJ Barrett will have to step up and take that pressure off. It’s been an up and down year for Barrett, far from the All-Star leap some (mostly Knicks fans) thought he could take. He’s completely plateaued, still scoring about 20 a game by taking a high volume of shots, still inconsistent on defense, still not offering much as a rebounder and zero as a playmaker. Last time we saw Barrett in the playoffs he shot 38% from the field while taking 13 shots a game. If he’s not offering anything more than inefficient shot chucking, it’ll be another disappointing early exit for New York. Especially since the wings are the big weakness of this Cavs team, Barrett has to show up. This might be his last chance to prove he was worth the 3rd overall pick. If he disappoints again, the Knicks might start taking trade calls.