3 months and 5000+ words ago I wrote a preview for the 2025-26 Eastern Conference that never saw the light of day. It started like this;
“7 seven minutes into the most viewed Finals game in six years, Tyrese Haliburton’s torn Achilles slammed the door shut on one of the most remarkable underdog runs in NBA history.
Two rounds earlier, Jayson Tatum hustled for a loose ball and lost his season on the same rupture. The six-time All Star was looking to defend his title, Boston’s first in nearly 15 years.
For those keeping track at home- that’s the past two Finals representatives in the East losing their two best players for the entirety of the 2026 season. Without a true bankable favorite, the usually top-heavy East finds itself in a power vacuum.
Chaos is a ladder; everyone will be throwing their cap in to try and climb over each other. Weird teams, fun teams, maybe even some truly great teams- who knows what’s to come. The playoff race is wide open for the first time since Lebron left for LA.”
A lot has changed since then. The preseason favorite is barely over .500. The Tatum-less Celtics have been awesome. Trae Young is out in Atlanta after a disappointing start, with more dominos to fall at the trade deadline.
An MVP has taken the backseat but the Sixers might be good anyway, Giannis is cosplaying Atlas and Milwaukee falling apart anyway, Orlando still can’t score, we got Sandro Mamukelashvili playing like legit 6MOTY… parity is fun but it’s overwhelming.
Whether you’re a basketball sicko, casual fan, or just a friend of mine doing me a favor (I appreciate you!), the goal here is to take a glance around the presumptive contenders and see who you want to stick with. Call it NBA speed-dating.
- Detroit Pistons (33-11)
- Boston Celtics (28-17)
- Toronto Raptors (29-19)
- New York Knicks (27-18)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (27-20)
- Philadelphia 76ers (24-20)
- Orlando Magic (23-21)
- Miami Heat (25-22)/ Chicago Bulls (23-22)/ Atlanta Hawks (22-25)
- Milwaukee Bucks (18-26)
Teams are organized by standings as of 1/26/26. There’s a lot of content here, so feel free to click around to find out more about anyone you’re particularly interested in. Boston and Toronto are fun teams if you (understandably) don’t know where to start.
All stats come courtesy of CleaningTheGlass.com and Nba.com/stats
Detroit Pistons (33-11)
Vibes: That final rap battle in 8-Mile, Dan Campbell tearfully telling his guys how much he loves them, Prom with a dream date
Last season was straight out of a movie in Detroit. They went from 14 wins to 44, winning their first playoff game in 17 years- doing so with so much joy the days of 28 game losing streaks have almost been forgotten. Almost.
Despite numerous trade opportunities, Detroit bucked conventional wisdom and chose to run it back. Of the 7 players on their roster are currently receiving 20 or more minutes per game (MPG); 5 were drafted by Detroit. Lower the qualifier to 15 MPG and 7 of the 11 follow the same trend. Franchise star Cade Cunningham is the only player recording more than 30 minutes a night. This team was built from the ground up, and it’s working.
Cade entered the upper echelon of NBA guards last season and has shown no signs of slowing down. The former #1 overall pick has become everything Detroit hoped for; an overwhelming force with the size and skill to carry a game on both ends of the floor. Cade’s second only to Nikola Jokic in assists per game (9.8).
Here’s a fun one; in his minutes, 41.3% of Detroit’s made shots come off a Cade assist. More than a third of his teammates’ total buckets are generated by him. That’s a point guard.
An important aspect of Detroit’s continued growth has been consistency in expectations. Good teams allow their talent to play to their strengths. Ensuring continuity in roles allows responsibilities to grow naturally.
One great way to do this comes by retaining similar supporting archetypes. Caris Levert and a healthy Jaden Ivey replace Dennis Schoeder and Tim Hardaway Jr. Sniper Duncan Robinson can provide the same volume shooting as Malik Beasley. Do-it-all wing Javonte Green provides glue to nearly any lineup. It’s an impressively deep roster, built to accentuate the strengths of each other.
Breakout star Jalen Duren has been the biggest beneficiary of this careful development. Duren’s always been able to put his shoulder into someone or leap out of the gym- even when he came into the league at 19 he looked carved out of granite. Four years later he has the patience and control to leverage his physicality. Teams still have to worry about Duren as a roll man/lob threat- now he can create a shot in the low post or even take a few dribbles to force an advantage. He’s never going to be Kyrie Irving; that’s not the expectation. Being able to simply initiate actions as well as finish them affords Detroit a much-needed release valve when teams load up on Cade.
Speaking of Cade, the Pistons are +12.1 points better when he and Duren share the floor per 100 possessions. That’s pretty good. For reference, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam had a +13.8-point differential during their Finals run. The Pistons find themselves with one of the most dominant pick and roll duos in the league.
Detroit picked up Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland in back-to-back drafts. The two uber-athletic wings specialize in, for lack of words, putting opposing offenses in hell. The Pistons are currently 1st in opp efg% and 2nd in turnover rate. In English, that means teams miss more shots and turn the ball over more against Detroit than anyone else. With respect to Miami’s infamous Heat Culture, there may be no better developmental machine than Detroit right now.
It’s no accident that the Pistons are 2nd in the league in point differential (+8.2)1. Doing so despite a middling Offensive Rating2 hovering around 12th in the league. There’s your chink in the proverbial armor.
They do some good stuff; hitting the offensive glass hard (2nd best in the league, grabbing 34.8% of their own misses) and getting to the line frequently (4th most Free Throw Attempts per game). Good teams do these little things well. Even so, there’s an immense burden on Cade to carry Detroit’s offense. Come playoffs- when whistles tighten and teams can game plan more specifically- relying on such unstable variables could get dicey.
There’s time before all that drama to just enjoy what this team is. They’re young and hungry with a lot to prove, flying around the court on both ends. Coach JB Bickerstaff has established a standard, and GM Trajan Langdon has found guys that can execute. The Pistons are finally good. All that’s left now seeing what levels come next.
Player To Watch: Jaden Ivey
You know how Detroit sometimes struggles to put the ball in the basket? What if I told you they have a former top 5 pick coming off the bench who was averaging 17 PPG last season. Ivey was a starter before a broken fibula that saw him miss the final 49 games and playoff series during Detroit’s breakout run.
It was a gut-wrenching turn for a player finally putting it together after an up and down start to his career. Now he finds himself coming back off the bench under immense pressure to find this spark again. It’s hard not to root for Ivey. Detroit certainly is. Should the high-flying guard recapture the more efficient scoring punch he’s flashed, Cade’s life in the grueling NBA postseason will get much easier.
Boston Celtics (28-17)
Vibes: your buddy telling you he can do a backflip and actually landing it; “‘it’s just a flesh wound!“; Joe Mazulla’s crazy eyes
So, remember all that stuff earlier about the Celtics being cooked without Tatum? Whoops.
For what it’s worth, Tatum’s injury was the beginning of a larger tear down. Championship starters Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis were all traded to cut costs. All told, only four rotational players from Boston’s 60-win season remain on the roster. It’s not like Boston brought in a bunch of proven talent to subsidize their losses either. Half of Boston’s top 10 in MPG3 had never averaged more than 15 minutes a night before this year. Neemias Queta somehow being the only one of the bunch to have averaged over 10 MPG.
Yet here they are, 2nd in the league in OFFRTG and 3PM4 , powered by a maniacal coach and a star emphatically establishing himself as a premier talent. Let’s meet Coach Joe Mazzulla;
“People are gonna say the target is on our back, but I hope it’s right on our forehead in between our eyes. I hope I can see the red dot.“– Coach Mazzulla on the competition success inspires.
“Zero. No pressure. We’re all going to be dead soon, and it really doesn’t matter anymore, so there’s zero pressure.”– Coach Mazzulla on the pressures of defending champions.
“The biggest thing that we rob people of, from an entertainment standpoint, is you can’t fight anymore. I wish you could bring back fighting... I just don’t get why some sports are allowed to clear the benches. They have bats and weapons, we don’t. We just have a ball. … we’re not allowed to throw down a little bit?”– Coach Mazzulla on the limitations of physical conflict.
Sounds like a guy who could turn a “gap year” team into a contender. A final Mazzulla quote gives us insight into how this happened;
Every player 1 through 45 on Mazzulla’s roster can pass, shoot, or defend at some level. The more skills you have, the easier it is for a player to make an impact every night. Basketball is a sport defined by variance; 30 PTS one night, 10 the next. A player with only one skill becomes unplayable. Versatility shields your team from being hurt too much by the variance that defines basketball.
No factor is more variable than shooting. Simply put, 3 is more than 2. If you’re going to miss the same percentage of shots, why not miss the ones worth more? Basketball entered a new era thanks to coaches like Mike D’Antoni leaning into pace and space, and players like Steph Curry and James Harden who could convert these equations into reality. Inspired by this, Boston tries to light you up from behind the arc every night.
Sometimes it doesn’t work. Sometimes they drop the house on teams, like against Atlanta when Sam Hauser shot 47% on 21 3PAs and Boston led by 30 at the half. With enough smart players and good shooters, the math works out more often than not.
Where do they go when shots aren’t falling? More importantly, how do they generate so many open looks? There’re several reasons, but the simplest is a name- Jaylen Brown.
Brown won the 2023 Finals MVP as the Robin to Tatum’s Batman. Two years later he’s playing like a top 10 player in the world. While the ability was never in question, it may have been taken for granted on stacked rosters.
Shouldering a massive 37.4% usage rate6, Brown is averaging career highs across the board. His 29.8 PPG comes in at the 4th highest in the league. Over half of his shots come in the mid-range, where he’s making 47% of them despite taking more than anyone in the league. Not to mention being a legit positive defender despite this offensive burden. If you want a real throwback superstar, here’s your guy.
Mazzulla deserves credit for reworking his offense around Brown’s strengths. They’re running more diversified sets and actions in the halfcourt to open up space to attack, rather than asking Brown to do a Tatum impression in the same offense. Boston will still force switches and attacks mismatches in the pick and roll, but the focus has shifted.
Brown deserves credit for scaling up at such a high level, of course. As does his supporting cast, new and old (Derrick White has been a DPOY contender!) for adjusting to a new scheme. It’s all smiles for the Celtics right now. Even more so knowing Tatum is making “amazing” progress on his rehab. You can never count Boston out.
Player to Watch: Neemias Queta
A former Day 2 draft pick of my beloved Kings, Queta was poached by Boston and has developed into an extremely capable starting center. A tremendous screener who has bought into his role with the requisite hustle he’s owned since his days in Stockton. Queta has plenty of loud plays- blocks that fly into the third row and thunderous dunks- but his real talent is in the small stuff.
Hitting a perfect angle on a flare screen to open up a shooter, keeping active hands while communicating as a defensive anchor, sealing off the help defender in the dunker’s spot. Nothing that shows up on the stat sheet, nonetheless essential in Boston’s success. He’ll have to clean up his fouling habits (nearly 3 per game!) to compete with star big men come playoff time; but having playoff questions are a good problem for a team supposed to be in a gap year.
Toronto Raptors (29-19)
Vibes: Finding a random $20 bill in your pocket; That Paul Rudd meme; a deep breath of clean, winter air
Before the season. Toronto’s over/under was 39.5 wins. They were projected to finish 9th in the East. Not only are they on pace to smash the over, but Toronto has also already won more games than they did last year in half the time. The Raptors sit as the surprising 3rd seed, a poster child for the opportunities afforded in a wide-open conference.
Usually when a team makes a deadline trade for a former All-Star, the hype train follows. Yet Toronto’s acquisition of Brandon Ingram was mostly met with polite golf claps and shrugs. A talented scorer, sure, but lacking career success. People questioned why Toronto would fast track their rebuild for an empty-calories7 player.
Now he’s leading scorer on the most surprising story in basketball. How’s that for empty calories? Granted, he’s only averaging 21.7 per night, a testament to Toronto’s holistic style of play. Yet just the threat of Ingram’s scoring unlocks the Raptors’ offense.
Like most teams that emphasize positional size, Toronto has struggled to score consistently. Resident All-NBA stud Scottie Barnes was forced to scale up as primary scorer, playmaking hub, and defensive anchor. That’s unsustainable for anyone. Barnes is a good offensive player, but not a true shot creator. Him being overstretched meant more pressure on RJ Barrett’s creation ability, more strain on Immanuel Quickley’s playmaking, and a roster wide scaling up forcing players into unnatural roles.
Ingram is an assassin, 6′ 7″ and able to rise and fire over anybody. His three-level scoring is an instant release valve. By playing to his superpower, he allows the entire roster to scale back down and play their strengths.
Barnes is averaging the same 19 PPG as last season, while increasing his eFG%8 from 48.6% – 53.4%. Barrett is up nearly 4% as well. The Raptors may not be a world beater offensively; now they function in a more logical way. For a team that takes care of the ball (5th in league in offensive TOV%) and generates tons of extra possessions (4th in the league in defensive TOV%), being functional is a massive step forward.
It will be harder in the playoffs. Whistles tighten and teams are able to focus on more refined game plans. Toronto still lacks a true floor general. However, that scoring challenge could go both ways. Toronto’s swarming defense is unrelenting. There may be no team better equipped to muck up games and win a brick fight.
A lot can change before the deadline. Toronto’s already been connected to big names like Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis, and Anthony Davis.
No matter where they go, here’s to the Raptors; the East’s Cinderella team. If you think it’ll be a minute before the clock strikes midnight, they’re a fun bunch to take a flier on.
Player to Watch: RJ Barrett
Barrett, the #3 overall pick in 2019, has finally found his footing in Toronto’s armada of wings. He’s maximized his ability to score anywhere in the paint- feasting on the spacing and relentless cutting in Darko Rajaković’s offense.
His ability to put the ball on the floor and generate paint touches as well relieves so much pressure. With Barrett Toronto is 17-7. Without him, just 11-12. He’s the X-Factor for this team.
*Should Barrett get traded before the deadline, I’d like to hedge this column for Sandro Mamukelashvili. He’s shooting the cover off the ball on a team that desperately needs him to. Awesome development for a guy who has fought tooth and nail to stay in the league.
New York Knicks (27-18)
Vibes: Bailing on college to chase the Broadway dream; Your favorite vomit inducing roller coaster; The “But the PRESSURE” scene from Silver Linings Playbook.
Mike Brown is one of only 4 people in league history to win Coach of the Year for multiple teams- and the first to ever win the award unanimously. So naturally coaching drama has taken center stage.
This all started last spring, when the Pacers knocked off Knicks to continue their dream season in the Finals. It was an instant classic, which began with Tyrese Haliburton stealing New York’s heart in Game 1 and ended with the firing of Coach Tom Thibodeau. Thibs being another one of the 4 multi-team COTY winners by the way.
He given the Knicks back-to-back 50-win seasons for the first time since 1995. Firing him was a move so bold it required an immediate, public justification. Owner James Dolan recently explained the move by arguing you “need somebody who’s more of a collaborator than Tom was” in order to build a sustainable winner in the modern NBA. Emphasis on the modernization aspect.
You don’t have success like that by accident, but Thibodeau caught a lot of heat for a stale offensive philosophy and an infamous over-reliance on their starters. Three of New York’s starters (Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges) finished the top 10 in minutes played per game league wide. Injuries kept piling on in their deeper runs. Teams began to pick up on New York’s script of spamming Jalen Brunson pick and rolls. The Knicks had to see who they were without the man who built them.
Turns out that team’s offense is pretty good. 3rd in ORTG fueled by taking 17.1% more threes per game in 2026. They’re passing more, running more, and Brown is trusting his bench far more. He’s already used 16 different starting lineups and we’re barely halfway through the year. It’s like someone poured 5-Hour Energy into a Red Bull and threw it at their head.
While it’s come with a slight dip in defensive efficiency, this new juice was enough to propel the Knicks to an NBA Cup bann- wait, Dolan says he’s waiting for the real thing. Throw in a 9-11 record post Cup and some “accidental” shade from your scourned coach, and you’ve got drama that refuses to die. Gotta love New York.
Nothing here matters until the postseason. Each win proof that this team can win it all, each loss proof of the inevitable Knicks collapse the fanbase is accustomed to. If you just want to watch ball though…
Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns are offensive supernovas. OG Anunoby is one of the most physically imposing players out there. Josh Hart is all hustle, and Mikal Bridges is having a mini resurgence. Throw in a revitalized bench and elite offensive coaching and the Knicks are must see TV no matter where they finish.
This is a talented, deep roster- one ownership says “should win the NBA Finals“. No pressure there. New York is desperate to prove themselves and ripe with discourse. Come for the drama, stay for the basketball, strap in to see how it all ends.
Player to Watch: Jordan Clarkson
Jordan Clarkson is one of the dudes that shows up to pick up runs wearing Airpods and pajama pants. Straight buckets. Ethical, grass fed, non-GMO buckets. He’s an essential player for a team with Finals aspirations; someone that can get hot and win you games off absurd shot making. He can also lose you a game when those shots aren’t falling.
There’s a reason the former 6MOTY9 came to NY on only a vet minimum contract in New York. A high variance player, sure, but one with the energy and skill that can make a good team great. Mike Brown will have to ride the wave; knowing when to stop the show and when to let him soar. In a city full of performers, Clarkson’s game stands with the best of them.
Cleveland Cavaliers (27-20)
Vibes: That video of Spongebob running around with his brain on fire; John Wick at the end of John Wick 4
The pressure on Cleveland is somewhere between the Mariana Trench and the MCAT. Anything short of a Finals run is a failure. They’ve got the most expensive roster in the league, well above second-apron spending limits. There’s a lot of complicated verbiage, basically once you hit the second apron everything becomes harder.
Cleveland will owe around $149 million luxury tax on top of their $227 million payroll. In the second apron you lose access to Salary Exceptions10 and are forced into strict salary matching on trades. You are severely limited in the roster moves you can make. So, Cleveland is hemorrhaging money, and if something isn’t working they have to get really creative to fix it.
Teams don’t enter this mode unless they know they’ve got a real shot. Cleveland won a league best 61 games last season before falling to the Pacers’ Mandate of Heaven. Injuries didn’t help, but this loss echoed a trend of playoff disappoint in the years PL (Post-Lebron).
The pragmatist will note it’s silly to blame individual players entirely in a team game. They’d follow that by mentioning seven games don’t mean much in a high variance sport like basketball; most statisticians say a 20-25 game sample size is needed for any conclusion to be made. Yet fair or unfair, those 7 games are how success in the NBA is judged- and Cleveland has repeatedly failed to meet expectations. Now, with a wide-open path to the championship, they get a shot to prove their massive investment right.
For all their struggles this season, Cleveland still employs a legit MVP candidate. Donovan Mitchell scores the basketball like a Formula 1 driver. It’s remarkable how quickly and powerfully he’s able to shift gears; exploding to the rim with a poster dunk or circus finish. He’s one of the most entertaining players to watch in the league.
Mitchell and fellow All-Star Darius Garland are smaller than the usual NBA backcourt, which Cleveland makes up for with two 7 foot+ All-Stars in the frontcourt. Sometimes the simplest answer really is the best. Issues arise in finding that 5th starter. The Cavs have used 24 different starting lineups in 47 games. Again, injuries have been killer- glue guy Max Strus hasn’t played yet thanks to a Jones fracture in his foot, and they’ve gone 6-11 without Sam Merrill’s knockdown shooting.
Some of the problems feel existential however. Trade acquisition De’Andre Hunter has seen his 3P% drop a staggering 10% this year. Lonzo Ball is shooting a ghastly 30% from the field. Larry Nance Jr. hasn’t been able to stay in the rotation. All this turnover has caused the rotation to feel a little wonky
Toss in a plateau for reigning DPOY Evan Mobley’s offensive development and Garland’s continued injury battles; Cleveland sat at a stunned 17-16 record towards the end of December. The most expensive 8th seed in NBA history.
Since then they’ve begun to clean up their act. A 9-4 run in the new year has been powered by the emergence of Jaylon Tyson. Cleveland’s first round pick in 2025 jumped from 3.6 PPG to 13.5 while shooting 45% from three and hitting the glass hard- snagging 2 offensive rebounds a night.
Tyson’s frame (6′ 6″, 215) lets him battle with the dominant wings that have given Cleveland so much trouble in the past. Uncovering a gem of a role-player is how hard capped teams like the Cavs can stay in the fight. That clock is ticking though. Cleveland will owe roughly $250 million in a repeater tax should they remain in the second apron next season. If they can’t at least make the Eastern Conference Finals, tough conversations will have to be had.
Start practicing your calming breathes now.
Player to Watch: Nae’Qwan Tomlin
Tomlin actually never played high school basketball. The Harlem native was scouted by Monroe Community College during pickup runs in Rucker Park- eventually working his way to college ball at Memphis and signing with Cleveland after going undrafted. Look up “energy big” in the dictionary and you’ll find Tomlin.
He compensates for the more unrefined areas in his game with unmatched length and hustle. Off pure aesthetics the man is a joy to watch on the court. The Cavs have +5 point differential with him on the court and are +1000 in vibes when he pulls off rim shattering dunks like this one.
Philadelphia 76ers (24-20)
Vibes: A buddy cop movie where the young gun helps the grizzled vet find his joy again; getting the wrong order but more food; “AS YOU CAN SEE, I AM NOT DEAD“
The Sixers might have the funniest roster in the league. Everyone is either too old or too young. Six players are 30 or older, three of whom (Paul George, Eric Gordon, Kyle Lowry) are 35+. Literally everyone else is 25 or younger. An atrocious, injury filled 2024-25 allowed them to pick a 20-year-old rookie with the #3 overall pick. Meanwhile, Kyle Lowry turned 40 in March.
Philly also serves as a relic of a bygone era, when a team could throw max contracts at talent and figure out the rest later. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and the aforementioned Paul George take up about 74% of their cap space.11 Maxey is the only one in his prime, while George and Embiid spent most of last season injured. None of this is conventional. Somehow it’s working.
Let’s start with the youth movement. Tyrese Maxey is on another planet right now. No shot seems off limits. He’s got a quick-trigger jumper and the willingness to pull up whenever. The quick hesi dribble is nearly impossible to guard. His energy never lets up despite averaging a league-high 39.5 MPG. As it stands, that’s the 3rd most in league history.
If Maxey ever gets bored of hoops, he could be a phenomenal surfer. His core strength and balance combine with a refined shooting touch to make even the most absurd angles seem routine. There’s never a moment where the defense can catch their breath. Third in the league in PPG (30.1) doesn’t happen by accident.
Remember that 20-year-old rookie? VJ Edgecombe12 has been averaging 15.6 a game, leading all rookies in minutes, and proving to be a defensive nightmare. We at least saw the last part happening immediately. Edgecombe is a superhuman athlete but profiled as a project player who needed time to refine his skills. So much for that.
As The Ringer’s Danny Chao puts it, “The threat of their collective athleticism puts defenses in a double bind… The Sixers have highlighted that by involving him as a guard screener for Maxey, where Edgecombe can slip into open space on the wings with all the attention that Maxey commands on the drives. V.J. is shooting a blistering 62.5 percent from 3 as the screener on pick-and-pops.”
Lineups shared by these two outscore opponents by 5.2 points every 100 possessions. This incredible final sequence to beat Golden State earlier in the year exemplifies what makes this pair so electric- explosive athleticism paired with hustle, grit, and skill make for a duo that should be a problem for years to come.
The two former MVP level players on Philly’s roster deserve immense credit for accepting this passing of the baton. Embiid especially, this was the best player on the planet just three years ago. Paul George was brought on to be the third star on a championship team. Now he averages about the same PPG as Edgecombe. It would have been easy to complain, as aging stars as known to do. Instead, they’ve bought into their new roles with a contagious level of commitment.
These are still future Hall of Famers mind you. A lesser offensive burden has allowed George to resemble the incredible wing defender he was in Indiana. A shot maker like him never loses that skill either.
Maxey being this good allows Philly to rest Embiid more and ease the strain on his body. The big man had a rough start but remains second on the team in scoring and looks more and more like his MVP self each game. The 32-12-10 he put on Houston the other night was vintage.
No matter what seed they end up, nobody wants to go beat Philly 4 times. Young phenoms guided by savvy veterans is a sports success story old as time. Should they (knocks on wood) stay healthy, you can’t talk about Eastern contenders without mentioning the Sixers.
Player to Watch: Dominick Barlow
Great teams need good players on cheap contracts. Two-way13 stud Dominick Barlow has been exactly that. The rangy forward makes himself invaluable through relentless defensive energy and cleaning up the little things. Nearly 40% of his total rebounds come on the offensive glass. He can catch lobs and pass just well enough to compensate for the lack of a consistent jumper. Most importantly, he’s a fantastic fit next to Joel Embiid.
Philly is +8.2 in their minutes. Embiid has an easier time controlling the defensive paint with Barlow out there. Barlow can take the more challenging matchup as well as help cover Embiid on switches and on the boards. All signs point to the Sixers converting him to a standard contract; he’s certainly earned it.
Orlando Magic (23-21)
Vibes: really hoping you don’t get rained out at Disney World; Phillip Seymor Hoffman’s “MAKE IT RAIN” scene in Along Came Polly
The last time the Magic finished with an above-average Offensive Rating was 2010-11 season (aka 15 years ago).14Anemic offense has become synonymous with Orlando- right up there with theme parks and alligators.
For years the Magic have been next-up, a portal into the future of basketball where every position is jumbo size and you score 90 points a game. Inconsistent scoring has prevented them from winning a playoff series in back-to-back seasons- prompting a gutsy offseason trade of 4(!!) first round picks for Desmond Bane.
Bane may be one of the best basketball players the casual fan has never heard of. An absolute flamethrower of a scorer with T-Rex arms and limitless range; theoretically built in a lab to compliment the giants in Orlando.
In practice? Results have been mixed.
The counting stats aren’t bad (19.2 PPG), but Bane has managed to shoot a career low 33.8% from three despite taking less per game (5) than any season outside his rookie year. His EFG% as a whole has sunk from 56.5% to 50.8%. What causes an efficient volume scorer to drop off like this?
Teams have been able to take away his routine looks by running more bodies at him knowing they won’t be punished for overcommitting. Once again, you can pack the paint against the Magic without worrying too much from behind the arc. Only one Orlando player is shooting over 40% from three; 20-year-old Jase Richardson, logging just 11.8 MPG.
Of course, all of this needs to be judged in context. Orlando has had brutal injury luck; All-Defensive teamer Jalen Suggs continues to battle through a new injury every night, and All-Stars Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have both missed time. It’s tough to develop consistency without reps.
Banchero and Wagner are a dilemma themselves. Undoubtedly the most talented players on the roster yet find themselves victim of the same questions about their fit together.
A rock-solid 36% from behind the stripe for Wagner has been a boon for their partnership, he and Banchero have a +6.5 NETRG in their limited minutes together. For his part, Banchero has used his special combination of size (6′ 10″, 250) and touch finish at the rim more consistently despite shooting a frosty 25% from 3.
If it sounds like I’m harping on 3-point shooting, I’m sorry but it really does matter that much. In the modern NBA quality shooting opens up everything- a positive feedback loop allowing an offense the room to score efficient twos which in turn generate more open threes.
Franz’s brother, Moe, just made his return from a torn ACL and will provide a needed scoring punch off the bench. Better injury luck should help build chemistry. Yet the intrinsic issues with this roster aren’t going anywhere without a substantial move.
Here’s the real kicker- while Orlando might be flirting with league average on O (16th in ORTG), the defense has fallen off a cliff (12th in DRTG; down from 2nd in ’24-25). If they can’t even play to their supposed strength, things might get dicey quick in the Sunshine State.
The idea of the Magic is tantalizing. They’ve got their work cut out for them making it a reality.
Player to Watch: Anthony Black
The 21-year-old jumbo guard (6′ 7″!) has used the opportunity granted by Orlando’s rash of injuries to breakout. Black, a career 9 PPG scorer, is up to 15.7 on the season with 17.2 with 6.3 AST over the last two weeks. Offensive development has been the big question mark for the former 6th overall pick- if he can figure it out, the Magic will take a huge step in the right direction.
My 5-second pitch for Anthony Black? This monster dunk over the entire Grizzlies roster in Berlin. Finishing that game +1715 with 21-6-7 doesn’t hurt his case either.
Miami Heat (25-22)/ Chicago Bulls (23-22)/ Atlanta Hawks (22-25)
Vibes: Icarus falling (Miami), Prometheus chained to the rock (Chicago), Odysseus losing his crew on his 40 year voyage home (Atlanta)
“Ben you lazy bum why are you grouping three teams in one preview??” I hear you say. Let me explain. For three years running, these teams have all made the Play-In Tournament together- creating a bond forged in the fires of mediocrity. As it stands, they once again have held the 8-10 seeds the majority of the season.16 Time is a flat circle.
Below is the winning % of these teams over the last decade; the blue line indicating the average win% of the top 4 seeds.17
17/20 of Finals teams in the decade were top 4 seeds. Ironically, Miami accounts for the only 2 Eastern Conference18 appearances by a non-top seed- most notably their historic run as an 8 seed in 2023. The Hawks went on a memorable run to the Conference Finals themselves in 2021 but were never able to match that level of success.
The Heat were also the only team from the bunch to surpass 50 total wins in a season (2022). While there are brief valleys for the Hawks and Bulls, we see a magnetization for each team around .500 after a brief resurgent peak. Bad teams get better draft odds, which means better odds at drafting franchise saving stars. With the harsher modern CBA, the relatively lighter cap hit for a good rookie also makes building your roster easier.
There’s no asset more valuable in sports than a cost-controlled star- and no better way of finding one than a high draft pick. It’s why teams stuck in the middle of the pack have begun to tank19 instead of damning themselves to NBA purgatory. Based on that graph, where do you think these teams are?
Again, I’ll note that Miami is a special case. The coaching genius of Erik Spoelstra and the star duo of Jimmy Butler/Bam Adebayo had enough postseason success to justify mediocre regular seasons. Likewise, the fairy dust from Trae Young’s star making 2021 run earned an extended period of competitiveness. Even with Young gone, Atlanta still possesses a star worth building around. Chicago, who hasn’t won a playoff series since 2015 and has qualified once in the past decade, does not get the same grace. Sorry guys.
Fairy tale seasons are awesome. They’re just not a sustainable strategy. They require good matchups, some injury luck, and transcendent play from stars. Jimmy Butler isn’t in the building anymore; neither is Trae Young. Seven game series make it even more challenging to knock off a better team. Hope is not a strategy.
That isn’t to say these are boring teams. Atlanta traded Young thanks in large part to the emergence of do-it-all wing Jalen Johnson as the new face of the franchise. Johnson’s rare blend of skill, size, and athleticism reflects an organizational wide push towards the new Monstars-style NBA of metahumans with guard skills.
Hall of Famer Erik Spoelstra has once again reinvented the Heat with a revolutionary free-flowing offensive scheme leading the league in pace and overloading the floor to open up isolation opportunities in the halfcourt. Their continued ability to turn diamonds in the rough into quality rotation pieces continues to be remarkable.
Even Josh Giddey has stepped up for the Bulls- justifying his recent extension by averaging a near Triple Double (19-9-9). 2nd year stud (and Chicago native) Matas Buzelis has nearly doubled his scoring output from his All-Rookie campaign. At their core, however, none of these teams have shown they can compete with the best of the conference.
Chicago started hot before regressing back to the mean. Atlanta’s existential crisis and massive trade came after stumbling to a 20-25 despite a 46.5 preseason win total o/u. Miami refuses to be terrible, but Heat Culture has become more about belief than results.
Nobody knows what the trade deadline will bring. As of today, however, these are moribund rosters, drifting across the standings.
I don’t want this to end on downer note. Basketball is really fun, especially when teams are trying to compete with the best of them. All of these teams have had plenty of incredible buzzer beaters and memorable moments that resonate deeper than their records. That’s one of the most beautiful things about sports.
Yet the end goal is to win a championship. When you pull back and look at the big picture, do any of them look close? I’d trust Atlanta’s future the most, but still. You see three sailboats in the open ocean, waiting for some wind of destiny to shove them in a direction.
Players to Watch: MIA: Kel’el Ware, CHI: Matas Buzelis, ATL: Zaccherie Risacher
Each of these players was drafted last year. Each carries the weight of franchise expectations. All of them are 21 or younger. Meanwhile my rec basketball team at UC Davis is competing to win a T-Shirt, so I guess there’s pressure on ALL of us.
Buzelis is a lightning bolt. Relentlessly hammering his way into the teeth of the defense looking to punch one at the rim. In a drastically increased role, his struggles with efficiency and playmaking are more apparent; but he’s still Chicago’s best shot at a homegrown All-Star.
Risacher caught flack on draft night for being an underwhelming #1 overall pick. While the Frenchman has been far from a bust, his stats this year have been nearly identical to his rookie debut. He can’t allow himself to be stuck as a Swiss Army Knife with dulled edges. A shooting leap would help Atlanta immensely, and the talent is there.
Ware might be the most interesting prospect of the bunch. Ridiculous athletes that can lace 40% of threes standing at 7′ 230 lbs. don’t grow on trees. His effort level has become an unfortunate storyline, but in Miami’s current scheme he doesn’t receive the pick and roll/low post reps he dominated in college. Anybody scoring in the 100th percentile of NBA athletes is worth keeping an eye on.
Milwaukee Bucks (18-26)
Vibes: Atlas holding up the Earth, Any lead in a Josh Safdie movie (namely Uncut Gems or Marty Supreme)
JJon Horst has had a pretty good career. He was one of the key voices during Milwaukee’s 2013 draft, where their trust in a skinny 18-year-old from Greece was rewarded with an all-time talent. After becoming the GM in 2017, Horst built around Giannis Antetokounmpo until the pair won it all in glorious, historic fashion. Personally speaking, that team solidified my love for basketball.
Now it’s 5 years later and everything has fallen apart. Giannis (when he can play) remains a top 3 player in the world. But that championship core is gone. Young players haven’t panned out, veterans outstayed their usefulness or never fully meshed, and still Giannis remains a once in a generation talent.
You can’t just quit on a player like that. So the Bucks have exhausted nearly every resource just to try and stay afloat.
Horst traded five 2nd round picks for a year and a half of Jae Crowder. Then a blockbuster Damian Lillard trade peaked with an NBA cup and ended with a torn Achilles. Milwaukee, desperate to compete, opted to waive and stretch Lillard’s $125 million contract as dead cap so they could sign Myles Turner to a 4 year/$109 million deal. They’re over the cap limit and don’t control their own first round pick until 2031.
Khris Middleton, homegrown All-Star, a man who scored 40 points in a crucial Game 4 Finals win, was unceremoniously dumped at last year’s deadline for Kyle Kuzma.
These issues have been compounded by the harsh new CBA, distilling their strategy to the point it’s become “Give Giannis the ball and let him figure it out.” Despite injuries derailing this plan, it’s still somehow worked.
Giannis has been taking more shots and making more of them than anyone since 1977. Fitting to the morose tone of the season, the Hall of Famer re-injured his calf miss and will miss another 4-6 weeks.
Ironically, the only out left for the Bucks is Giannis. Any trade will have to wait until the offseason, where finances are more liquid and the Bucks could net enough of a return on the greatest player in their history.
So here Milwaukee remains. Struggling against the inevitable, desperately clawing out even more moves to keep the dream going a little longer. They might finally be running out of options.
Player to Watch: Ryan Rollins
There has been exactly one bright spot for the Bucks this season; Ryan Rollins. Rollins has logged 1300+ minutes, and the Bucks are still somehow +10.3 points better in his minutes. They’re -10.9 when he sits. With good positional size and an efficient handle, Rollins can break down defenses to provide the non-Giannis creation Milwaukee desperately needs.
Developments like this are critical in keeping The Bucks afloat. Only problem is they need about 2-3 more like it. AJ Green is also a name to watch. Dairy Bird has a sweet jumper and the same name as one of the guys who made me love football.
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- Efficiency differential: Points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions. It’s an all inclusive way to measure team success- anything positive means you’re winning your minutes.
↩︎ - Offensive Rating; an advanced stat that (essentially) tracks how well a team performs offensively. Defensive Rating is self explanatory. Net Rating is ORTG-DRTG.
↩︎ - Minutes Per Game
↩︎ - Three Point Makes
↩︎ - The traditional numeric positioning of players on the court. “1” is the Point Guard with “5” being the Center.
↩︎ - Usage: the % of possessions that end in a shot, assist, or turnover by a given player. Luka Doncic has the highest in the league at 40.9% right now.
↩︎ - A guy that puts up good numbers on bad teams and doesn’t do much to impact winning outside of scoring.
↩︎ - eFG%- an adjustment to regular FG% by giving 3-pointers more weight (1.5x) than 2-pointers
↩︎ - Sixth Man of the Year- an award given to the best bench player in the league
↩︎ - A get out of jail free card where salary doesn’t count against the cap. An additional exception be created in trades- $10M player traded for $4M player creates a $6M “trade exception” ↩︎
- They’ll receive $144,849,376 in combined yearly salary, in case you were wondering
↩︎ - Easily the coolest name in the league. Jeremiah Fears and Gradey Dick probably the runner ups ↩︎
- A part time NBA player, technically a member of the developmental G-League first
↩︎ - The year Orlando was “above average” they were 14th in the league- 15th being the average in a 30 team league ↩︎
- Say Anthony checks in when the score is 10-10. He checks out with his team leading 25-20. Anthony was +5 in his minutes.
↩︎ - As I release this Miami just became the 7 seed thanks to a 3 games Magic losing streak. I promise this section worked perfectly before that happened.
↩︎ - We’re using win% over total wins to account for the COVID shortened 2020-21 seasons.
↩︎ - Dallas in 2024 was the other
↩︎ - When a front office makes their roster worse to fail in the short term for long term success. Players and coaches never try to lose, teams do.
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Ben Talks Ball 
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